For almost a decade, the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Global Technology, Media & Telecommunications Industry Group has annually published its predictions for the technology, media

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Great predictions - or is it expectations
and telecommunications sectors. In Focus takes a look at some of these extremely interesting predictions, precising the 3 sections, particularly the most relevant to the film and television sector, Media.

By nature, the reports are lengthy, but if you would like to read them in full, go to www.deloitte.com.

In the technology predictions for 2010, seven predictions are listed:

  • The Arrival of Net Tablets
  • Moore's Law in 2010
  • Cloud Computing
  • Virtual Desktop Infrastructures
  • IT Procurement
  • CleanTech
  • From Grey to Green: Technology reinvents cement.

The arrival of Net tablets is probably the most interesting here. Although net tablets have been around for years, with all the buzz over the past few months, especially recently with Apple's apparent announcement on their new tablet, the conversation about tablets in general has returned. Deloitte predicts that the net tablet will not threaten PC or smart-phone manufacturers: "PC-like text or data entry would be cumbersome, and netTabs are not portable enough to replace a phone-sized device. In fact, if netTabs develop as a viable market, PC makers are more likely to be able to succeed with the tablet form factor rather than with smart-phones."

However, look at the tablet to be a take over of the eReader. It's an amazing example of why Deloitte and many others feel the eReaders' time has come and will soon be gone.

In their telecommunications predictions for 2010, the following are predicted:

  • The smart-phone becomes a search phone
  • Mobile VoIP becomes a social network
  • Telecom technology helps decongest the mobile network
  • Carriers change data pricing and make regulators happy
  • Reliability redefined and reassessed
  • Long-term solutions shorten and multiply
  • The line goes leaner and greener.

The smart-phone prediction was quite revealing. What exactly is meant that the smart-phone will become a search phone and why does Deloitte feel so strongly as to add this to their telecommunications predictions? It seems that the impulsive, spontaneous nature of many searches, combined with good-enough mobile search on smart-phones, should cause aggregate searches to rise in much the same way that early mobile phones caused the total number of phone calls to increase.

Turning to their 2010 media predictions:

  • Television and radio schedule stay supreme
  • Shift to online advertising continues
  • eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves
  • Publishing fights back
  • TV and the Web belong together, but on different screens
  • Music rising
  • Video on demand takes off
  • 3D TV

Deloitte says that most content will continue to be consumed according to broadcasters' programming schedules. The shift to online advertising will be more selective, but the trend continues and indeed accelerates, with the result that advertisers will look for better ways to measure the effectiveness of advertising online.

eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves. Deloitte says that eReaders will not have a breakout year, but a lot more users will in fact download eBooks to their own viewing devices.

Publishing fights back: pay walls and micro payments. In 2010, Deloitte says that traditional newspapers and magazines will continue to try to find ways they can charge for online content. Music as a service rises up the charts. Deloitte says music on mobile devices will be hot and at the same time the major industry players will be experimenting more with subscription-based music service offerings.

The Group believe the trend towards convergence of the TV/Web experience will continue while video-on-demand takes off, thanks to the vending machine. It is predicted that while growth in the internet as a distribution channel for video content will continue to grow, the revenue growth in the industry is all in the DVD vending machines.

And it's one step back, two steps forward for 3D TV. Deloitte implies that the success of the 3D version of Avatar will not necessarily translate into 3D TV growth. We're not sure we agree with this, particularly in the light of the extensive 3D coverage of the FIFA 2010 World Cup - but let's see. These are predictions after all!